Friday, April 26, 2024

Other Voices Weigh In On Trump "Hush Money" (AKA Election Interference) Trial

                                                                           

"Help me, my evangelical friends!"

As I noted in my March 27th post Trump never should have been a candidate and allowed to campaign at all after launching the Jan. 6th insurrection.  He ought to have been disqualified under Section 3 of the 14 amendment, i.e.

No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.


Frankly the bastard ought to have been hung by now - and then maybe drawn and quartered like the Brits did to traitors in the olden days.  But failing that we have the so-called "hush money" (read: election interference) trial and case which will reveal to one and all what a loathsome piece of orange carrion this maggot is. It's blatant election interference given the rat smoked his Reepo opponents (including Rubio and Cruz) using devastating "news" from the National Enquirer rag and its head honcho David Pecker.  All this came out Tuesday and much more is to come today.  Anyway, here are other voices weighing in on the trial which the media has covered breathlessly and was originally deemed not worth the cost of paper or digital bytes.


“Where’s Melania?”: Missing Wife Is Why Trump’s Lawyers Can’t Pull Off the “Family Man” Defense

by Amanda Marcotte | April 26, 2024 - 5:58am | permalink

— from Salon

In his opening statement in the People v. Donald Trump, defense attorney Todd Blanche told the Manhattan jury to gaze upon the criminal defendant and see a devoted family man. "He’s a man. He’s a husband. He’s a father," Blanche said of the former president accused of election interference. "He’s a person just like you and just like me." Hamfisted as it may be, it was a play by Blanche to distance his cranky, often sleepy client from what promised to be days, if not weeks, of testimony detailing a tawdry conspiracy to pay hush money to an adult film actress in order to cover up what sounds like rampant adultery.

There are many obvious pitfalls in this effort to recast Trump in the image of a suburban sitcom dad. The biggest might be one very noticeable absence in the courtroom. As a reporter who was pointedly ignored by Trump asked on Tuesday: "Where's Melania?"

It's not just the failed fashion model-turned-Mrs. Trump #3 who hasn't shown up in support. None of Trump's five children, or their spouses, have stood by his side in court, either. His two adult sons would rather spend time screening hypothetical future political appointments for "loyalty" than bother to show their father any in-person care at court. His eldest daughter, Ivanka Trump, is posting photos of her fancy vacations rather than staying in New York with her father.


Trump’s Humiliation Deepens: In Court, He Can’t Hide From His Tabloid Roots

by Amanda Marcotte | April 24, 2024 - 6:50am | permalink

— from Salon

While this falls far short of the punishment he deserves, there was considerable satisfaction to be gained from reports that Donald Trump spent much of the first week of his first criminal trial sitting in silence listening to mean tweets about him read aloud in court. For hours at a time, potential jurors in his New York "hush-money" trial were interviewed to determine whether they could judge the ex-president with an open mind. In the process, both past social media posts and in-the-moment honest opinions were made public.

Trump is such a famous narcissist that he literally has a woman who follows him around with a wireless printer to feed him a steady supply of online praise. Hearing what people outside the paid shills have to say was, all reports suggest, very upsetting for the former president. He glowered and eventually tried to leave the courtroom so quickly that he had to be told to sit down by the judge.

And:

‘Driving Him Crazy’: Trump Rages As Security Keeps ‘A Few Dozen’ Supporters From Courthouse

by Elizabeth Preza | April 23, 2024 - 7:05am | permalink

— from Alternet

CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on Monday detailed Donald Trump’s frustration with courthouse security as “a few dozen” supporters “are kept cornered off a bit of a distance” from the former president’s Manhattan “hush money” trial.

Opening statements in the Manhattan district attorney’s 34 felony count case against Trump began Monday morning as prosecutors alleged the former president lied “over and over and over” in an “illegal” conspiracy to hide hush money payments to adult film star Stephanie Clifford, whose stage name is Stormy Daniels, the New York Times reports.

According to Collins, Trump is growing increasingly frustrated as he views “this all through the lens of the campaign trail.”

“I think big picture, when you look at what Trump has been saying, his mindset going into this, he’s complaining about the gag order incessantly,” Collins told CNN’s Anderson Cooper. "I’m told privately the idea that he can't directly attack the judges family, the prosecutors in this case — he can go after [Manhattan District Attorney] Alvin Bragg— but not other members of the team … it has been a big thing of his.”

And:


Uncharted Territory: Trump’s Secret Service Detail May Follow Him to Prison if Convicted

by Carl Gibson | April 24, 2024 - 6:59am | permalink

— from Alternet

If former President Donald Trump is convicted of crimes and sentenced to prison, it's likely his permanent Secret Service detail would follow him to the cell block.

Since 1965, the U.S. Secret Service has been required by statute to protect all former presidents of the United States and their spouses for life, unless they decline protection. This means that Trump could theoretically have his personal security team with him — even if he's an inmate.

According to a Tuesday New York Times report, the logistics of incarcerating a former president are already being discussed now that his first criminal trial is officially underway. The topic of how Trump's Secret Service protection would operate in a prison environment initially emerged after this week's gag order hearing in Judge Juan Merchan's courtroom.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and his team of prosecutors have argued that Trump should be fined $1,000 for each instance of him allegedly violating Merchan's gag order. They also stressed that the gag order — which was meant to prohibit Trump from attacking trial witnesses, court staff and their families — could also be enforced by incarceration of up to 30 days should financial penalties prove ineffective (prosecutors did not call for Trump to be jailed over the current alleged violations).

See Also:


Ex-tabloid owner saw payoffs to Stormy Daniels, Karen McDougal as campaign-related


And:


And:


And:


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Are Small Fry Biotech Investors Really Getting "Hosed" In The Equity Markets? Looks Like It To Me

                                                                              

           Flash traders plot more gains via high frequency trading in 2014                             


The recent Wall Street Journal Business and Investing piece ('Certain Biotech Investors Get An Edge',  April 16, p. B12) was an eye opener for many but perhaps not in the way they wanted.  According to the article: 

"Publicly traded biotech companies are turning to PIPEs or 'private investments in public equities' to help them get through a volatile period in equity markets.  In the first quarter U.S. biotechs raised a record $5.7 billion using this approach."

What's not to like? Well, the small fry average biotech investors are not happy.  While it's a "cost effective way for experienced investors to raise money while avoiding the choppier public markets" it is less of a blessing for average shareholders of those companies which benefit.  As the WSJ notes: 

"The problem is that the PIPE boom is leaving out many investors, some of whom complain that it is essentially a form of legal insider trading.  This is because many PIPEs give  a select group access to nonpublic information such as data from a cancer study that is about to be published.  Once the deal is locked up PIPEs are announced to the public often alongside the information leading to major share gains."  

According to Daphne Zohar, founder and CEO at one biopharmaceutical company:  

"These deals make generalist investors feel like the deck is stacked against them."

But let's be clear it isn't like select PIPEs are the first iteration of this. In my 2011 book,

The Elements of the Corporatocracy: Stahl, Philip A.: Amazon.com: Books

 I noted The London Financial Times article (‘A Metaphorical Proposal’, Mar. 13, p. 11A) by Michael Skapinker. He cited remarks by Joseph Berardino – chief exec of Arthur Andersen- who noted how the current reporting system “fails to communicate essential information about the real risks facing companies” to the small investor.  Result?  The small fry "generalist' investor gets hosed, the big fish gets rich off the small fry's ignorance.

 Author Michael Lewis  also pointed out big boys' advantages in his book 'Flash Boys' .  Therein he described in detail how flash traders- using the high frequency trading (HFT) gambit - were able to see milliseconds ahead of ordinary investors'  buy orders to get in first, buy the stock and raise the price.  In a way it's kind of a tax on small fry transactions, so they don't come out as far ahead as they thought. Also, the same applies to sell orders. The flash traders can get there first, and you get much less than you originally thought you would.

Lewis emphasized the flash traders often traded on fractional share values but these inevitably pile up. Billions could be made off the backs of poor ordinary day traders, who trusted that when they placed their buy or sell orders no shenanigans or secret advantages were afoot. But alas, this wasn't the case. It only took a tiny fraction of a second of a flash trader's advantage (i.e.  or "latency")  for them to see slightly ahead - to what you're intention is - and do it before you do.  

So yes, in a real way, these built-in aspects of capital markets amount to legal ways to hose the small guys. Should you be alarmed?  Maybe, only if you have money - like approaching retirement - you can't afford to lose.  Otherwise just be aware of the pitfalls and how the game is stacked. In the case of the PIPEs it's especially the way access to the inside info is "extremely limited."  If you're not among the "two dozen or so controlling the vast majority of the deal flow" well you're out of luck.   

Then there is another concern (ibid.): 

"While there are strict rules around the information shared in PIPES, these deals could be leading to what is known as shadow insider trading - a pervasive problem in biotech whereby an investor learns information about Company A and then uses it to make an investment in Company B".

More reasons why wifey and I don't gamble in the Wall Street casino at all, opting for the slow and steady gains via money markets and the stable (monthly) income accruing from our immediate fixed annuities.

See Also:

Bringing The Stock Market Back In Synch With Main Street: It CAN Be Done But A Price Will Be Paid 

And:

The 'Game Stop' Speculative Frenzy And The Emerging Stock Bubble - What's Behind Them?

And:

And:

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Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Can New Bitcoin Coding Reduce Its Outrageous Mining Energy Consumption?

 

                          Bitcoin mining operation using exorbitant electric energy


The recent article (Code changes could drastically reduce bitcoin’s enormous electricity requirements) in Physics Today (APRIL, p. 26)  -  suggesting use of different coding as a means to control energy consumption of Bitcoin mining - was worthy of attention. As the piece notes, the Energy Information Administration  (EIA) :

"estimated in February that cryptocurrency mining accounts for anywhere from 0.6% to 2.3% of US electricity consumption."   

That is a lot and is having a major impact on our environment especially fueling climate change.

Bitcoin is by far the largest of the world’s more than 10, 000 cryptocurrencies, and to generate new bitcoins, mining companies must solve cryptographic puzzles that require vast computational resources.  This has led to the rapid growth in electricity demand and an additional CO2 input that is approaching intolerable levels. According to the PT piece:

 "Worldwide, bitcoin mining used more energy in 2020–21 than all but 26 countries, according to an October 2023 report by an academic arm of the United Nations. It emitted carbon dioxide equivalent to burning 38 billion kg of coal." 

(As Physics Today went to press, bitcoin was trading at an all-time high price of around $73 000. Bitcoin mining—and its energy consumption—rises in parallel with the price.)

For the uninitiated in the esoteric realm of cryptocurrency, "mining" is a loose metaphor for what is going on. There is no actual mining as in extraction of precious ores - like gold - to make bitcoin.  It is instead based on the continuous use of powerful computers to keep solving numerical - math problems and conundrums, in 10 minute stretches, to create the basis for generating bitcoin.  According to the website "Investopedia":

"Bitcoin mining is the process by which new bitcoins are entered into circulation, but it is also a critical component of the maintenance and development of the blockchain ledger. It is performed using very sophisticated computers that solve extremely complex computational math problems. Cryptocurrency mining is painstaking, costly, and only sporadically rewarding. Nonetheless, mining has a magnetic appeal for many investors interested in cryptocurrency because of the fact that miners are rewarded for their work with crypto tokens."

The abstruse mathematics underlying cryptography enables bitcoin to exist in the first place and is what drives computer energy consumption.  The applicable coding needs to follow that arc which allows most expeditious solution.  Especially as the Mathematics may entail solutions to the peculiar functions known as elliptic curves, i.e.

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2016/12/peculiarities-of-elliptic-curves-and.html

Thus, for example, bitcoin uses elliptic curve technology - a type of public key cryptography is needed to ensure the validity of transactions. I.e. that the bitcoin you are using is every bit as valid as the one I am using.  You can learn more here: about elliptic curve cryptography.

While this would pose a humongous problem for any virtual currency,  Bitcoin attempts to solve it using what's called  "blockchain".  Basically, this is a registry of all the Bitcoin transactions to date, and which all users can see.  It includes: when the Bitcoins were created and the dates for transactions between individuals.   The problem then becomes ensuring the blockchain is accurate. This is accomplished using powerful, number crunching computers that basically solve fearsome elliptical equations that help in verifying the Bitcoin transactions, dates, and hence the blockchain is accurate. If not, then it would be possible to steal or duplicate the currency.  Specifically, the amount of power consumed  by this number crunching is equivalent to all of that consumed by Finland in one year, or 5.1 gigawatts.  For comparison, the current largest bitcoin mining plant (in Texas) has a capacity of 700 MW and will soon be followed by a 1 GW plant. (The typical nuclear reactor produces about 1 GW of power).


Miners completing a new block are currently rewarded with 6.25 new bitcoins. As the mining network has grown over time, the computing power necessary to create new blocks has increased, since the code automatically adjusts the difficulty to keep the time required for completion of a block steady at around 10 minutes.

Nor is this likely to mark the limit of consumption. This is because bitcoin's energy intensive validation process - known as "proof of work"- is only likely to get more intense with time.  This will arrive as more and more application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) are incorporated and added to the blockchain. Clearly then, there must be a means or method to limit energy consumption and the greenhouse gases churned out.

Thankfully, environmental groups -  including Greenpeace and the Environmental Working Group  - have urged bitcoin to change its code to a far lower energy-intensive process called "proof of stake". Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, switched in 2022 to proof of stake, where large holders of the cryptocurrency offer some of their own holdings as collateral to validate new blocks and transactions in exchange for a chance to receive rewards. That change lowered the Ethereum network’s energy consumption by 99.9%, to an annualized 7.5 GWh.  Alas, large holders of bitcoin have opposed change. One (BMC) says the energy is required in order to provide network security and tie the cryptocurrency’s value to the physical world.  (The BMC claims that 60% of the energy consumed by the global bitcoin mining industry is supplied from sustainable, non-CO2-emitting sources—more green energy than is used by almost any other industry sector.)


Nonetheless, a 2022 report by the Sierra Club and Earthjustice accused some companies of “greenwashing” by locating their plants in proximity to wind or solar farms. But unless a company has a power purchase agreement or a direct connection to a renewable supplier, the proportion of renewables they use will be the same as that of the grid from which they draw. Apart from a few publicly traded bitcoin mining companies, few self-report their energy consumption source.

 All of this amounts to a giant spin production on behalf of the bitcoin miners, and in service of a cryptocurrency whose value to the greater economy remains dubious.  (Look no further than the continuing fallout from Sam Bankman-Fried's crypto scam).

What is needed is not "proof of work" right now but proof of energy use and that it is truly green-emphasized, not quasi green, or "green washed". A first step is a change in coding to generate bitcoin.

See Also:


And:


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Monday, April 22, 2024

"The Great Burning" - Is It Scientific Fact Or Pseudoscientific Baloney?


"Burning Earth" may well be in humanity's future
Profile of climate tipping point

As noted in my June 10, 2021 post, tipping points arise from sudden fluctuations of climate but which can lead to permanent conditions determining a new, more hostile equilibrium. From Atmospheric physicist Gunther Weller's models we expect a series of tipping points for which the control parameters (e.g. CO2 concentration) alter radically at every point. Two key points are noteworthy in this discussion:

1) Tipping point transitions  are governed by a potential V(x,c) with c the control parameter and described by a point x Î R n    that minimizes the potential. Changing external conditions - say pumping out more CO2 into the atmosphere- changes the control parameter c and that changes the shape of the potential V(x,c).  

As the shape of the potential V(x,c) changes the original global minimum becomes metastable or even disappears.   I believe we are at such a metastable point now with the concentration having jumped by >   5.1 ppm in just 2 years.   

The danger then is the global climate system being knocked into instability  (at a tipping point) and in its wake a new permanent equilibrium state (at some new potential V(x’, c’) for which humans face an existential crisis (heat waves lasting months, instead of weeks). How soon might this occur given a current value for CO2 concentration of 420 ppm? Professor Weller proposed 600 ppm as the threshold value for the runaway greenhouse effect, which would basically initiate a planetary state leading to Earth being uninhabitable after 100-200 yrs. No amount of “adaptation” would be feasible, especially if power grids collapsed from overuse in the frenzy to stay cool. 

2)    The pre-existing CO2 burden only adds to (1).   While about half of that carbon dioxide is currently absorbed by the world’s forests and oceans, the other half stays in the atmosphere, where it lingers for thousands of years, steadily warming the planet. Even if all CO2 emissions halted it would not make a dent in the long term accumulations already in the atmosphere. 

The process may be described like a series with terms being added, viz: to describe the CO2 content now in the atmosphere, we must initiate the series with n= 1 (for 1924), viz.  CO2( 2024) =   x  1  + x  2 +  x  3 +   x  4 +.............+  x  1 00 


Terminating at the last term 100 years later. Here each ‘x’ denotes the CO2 burden added for each year in succession.

Thus, the CO2 effect for a given year is not just for that year, but rather inclusive of the cumulative additions for all the years - starting up to 100 years before.

Adding it up along with a recent report in The Washington Post (April 19). According to that report, "the historic heat wave that besieged Mali and other parts of West Africa earlier this month — which scientists said would have been “virtually impossible” in a world without human-caused climate change- is just the latest manifestation of a sudden and worrying surge in global temperatures. "  

More worrisome:  "The scale and intensity of this hot streak is extraordinary even considering the unprecedented amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, researchers say. Scientists are still struggling to explain how the planet could have exceeded previous temperature records by as much as half a degree Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) last fall."

We must also factor in earlier  reported work showing humanity is in the process of changing the planet in ways that any future climatologist  (or geologist) would find obvious and undeniable. Also that we are headed for a hellish future defined by a number of major climate tipping points, defined by "the great Burning".

So, it’s probably best to think of the approaching geological and climatological moment epoch like a global conflagration—rather than a durable new regime (geological epochs tend to be several million years in duration).  So assuming there are humans around 10,000 or even a million years from now (dubious at best), they will be able to discern  the GHG residue from the 20th and 21st centuries .

The generations to come will inhabit a different world indeed. Earth’s new regime, once it has stabilized, will surely be classifiable as a new geological epoch.  But why “The Great Burning” in particular? The most plausible hypothesis is that of atmospheric scientist Gunther Weller: the onset of a catastrophic climate tipping point.  Prof. Weller had forecast such a tipping point as early as the mid -1980s while at the Geophysical Institute in Fairbanks, AK.  That was based on his then studies of the significant increase in Arctic temperatures (from ice core analysis)and the accompanying melting. We also saw this first hand while visiting Alaska in March of 2005, in particular the difficulty taking a dog sled over melting snow just outside Fairbanks, e.g.

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